2025 First Quarter Report
THE PROGRESSIVE CORPOR ATION
Three Months Ended |
Years Ended |
||||
(billions – except per share amounts) Net premiums written |
2025
|
2024 |
20242023 |
2022 |
2021 |
Growth over prior period |
17 % |
18 % |
21 % 20 % |
10 % |
14 % |
Net premiums earned |
|
|
|
|
|
Growth over prior period |
20 % |
19 % |
21 % 19 % |
11 % |
13 % |
Total revenues |
|
|
|
|
|
Net income |
|
|
|
|
|
Per common share |
|
|
|
|
|
Underwriting margin |
14.0 % |
13.9 % |
11.2 % 5.1 % |
4.2 % |
4.7 % |
(billions – except shares outstanding, per share amounts, and policies in force) |
|||||
At Period-End |
|||||
Common shares outstanding (millions) |
586.2 |
585.7 |
585.8 585.3 |
584.9 |
584.4 |
Book value per common share |
|
|
|
|
|
Consolidated shareholders’ equity |
|
|
|
|
|
Common share close price |
|
|
|
|
|
Market capitalization |
|
|
|
|
|
Retuon average common shareholders’ equity – trailing 12 months |
|||||
Net income |
34.2 % |
31.9 % |
35.5 % 22.9 % |
4.4 % |
18.6 % |
Comprehensive income (loss) |
39.3 % |
34.0 % |
36.4 % 30.0 % |
(13.5)% |
13.6 % |
Policies in force (thousands) |
|||||
Personal Lines |
|||||
Agency – auto |
10,146 |
8,593 |
9,778 8,336 |
7,767 |
7,879 |
Direct – auto |
14,771 |
11,855 |
13,996 11,190 |
10,131 |
9,568 |
Special lines |
6,637 |
6,076 |
6,520 5,969 |
5,558 |
5,289 |
Property |
3,576 |
3,209 |
3,517 3,096 |
2,851 |
2,776 |
Total Personal Lines |
35,130 |
29,733 |
33,811 28,591 |
26,307 |
25,512 |
Growth over prior period |
18 % |
7 % |
18 % 9 % |
3 % |
7 % |
|
1,162 |
1,101 |
1,141 1,099 |
1,046 |
971 |
Growth over prior period |
6 % |
3 % |
4 % 5 % |
8 % |
18 % |
Companywide total |
36,292 |
30,834 |
34,952 29,690 |
27,353 |
26,483 |
Growth over prior period |
18 % |
7 % |
18 % 9 % |
3 % |
7 % |
Private passenger auto insurance market1 |
||||||||||||| |
||||||||||||| |
NA |
|
|
Market share2 |
||||||||||||| |
||||||||||||| |
NA 15.6 % |
14.4 % |
14.1 % |
Stock Price Appreciation (Depreciation)3 |
|||||
Progressive |
20.4 % |
30.5 % |
51.4 % 23.2 % |
26.8 % |
10.8 % |
S&P 500 |
(4.3)% |
10.6 % |
25.0 % 26.3 % |
(18.1)% |
28.7 % |
The Progressive Corporation and Subsidiaries Financial Highlights
NA = Final comparable industry data will not be available until our third quarter 2025 report.
1Represents net premiums written as reported by
2Represents Progressive’s private passenger auto business, including motorcycle insurance, as a percent of the private passenger auto insurance market.
3Represents average compounded rate of increase (decrease) and assumes dividend reinvestment.
Letter to Shareholders First Quarter 2025
I would characterize the first quarter of 2025 as very successful and, more importantly, stable. With all that is going on outside of our walls related to foreign trade and tariffs, we have really focused on trying to maintain stable rates for our customers and taking care of them in their time of need. As I had stated in the last investor relations call, we have a team that crunches the data on anticipated magnitude and severity and what increased tariffs might mean to our loss costs. We have a variety of scenarios that we are running and, as it plays out in real time, we plan to react swiftly should we need to.
For the quarter, companywide net premiums written (NPW) grew 17%, compared to the first quarter last year, and the combined ratio (CR) was 86.0. We also had very impressive policies in force (PIF) growth, with nearly 5.5 million more PIFs than the end of the first quarter last year, bringing our total PIF count to over 36 million at
In Personal Lines (auto, special lines, and property), the first quarter 2025 delivered another period of exceptional growth and profitability. The quarter ended with over 35 million PIFs, representing 18% year-over-year (YOY) growth. NPW grew 20% YOY at a CR of 85.7. During the first quarter, our personal vehicle businesses continued to experience both strong policy and premium growth, while personal property remained focused on profitable growth in less volatile areas and reducing concentration in regions more prone to catastrophes.
We began 2025 open for business in almost all states for our personal auto product. Since the first quarter of the year is peak shopping season, we invested heavily in advertising and used agent reward incentives to drive consumer shopping. As a result of these efforts, new personal auto applications grew 32% YOY. While rate activity was minimal during the first quarter, we are closely monitoring the tariffs that might impact the auto sector, as well as other aspects of our business, and are regularly modeling how those could impact our loss costs, the supply chain, the availability of parts, and general inflation.
Our latest auto product offering, model 8.9, was in 21 states that represented 40% of companywide personal auto premium, on a trailing 12-month basis, at the end of the first quarter 2025. The 8.9 model contains new and expanded use of external data and introduces Progressive vehicle protection, a new mechanical breakdown coverage that runs concurrent with Progressive auto insurance to help consumers manage the cost of unforeseen vehicle repairs. Our preferred business is showing the most promising response to the model. Overall, we are seeing favorable conversion results in both the agency and direct auto channels. At quarter end, continuous monitoring in our Snapshot®product model 5.0, which includes a feature in the Progressive app that can detect major accidents and quickly connect customers to towing and emergency services, was deployed in 41 states that represented 78% of our trailing 12-month personal auto NPW (excluding
Personal property ended the first quarter with a CR of 87.2, which is 6.2 points better than first quarter 2024, and includes about 3.7 points of favorable prior accident year development, primarily related to prior-year weather events. We ended the quarter with over 3.5 million PIFs, which are up 11% over first quarter 2024, driven primarily by growth in our renters business. NPW were flat, compared to first quarter 2024, driven by a shift in mix towards renters, which have lower average written premiums, and our continued actions to deliberately slow growth and non-renew policies in certain geographic regions where we are de-risking.
We continue to focus on improving profitability and reducing exposure in markets more susceptible to catastrophic weather events. We also continue to prioritize insuring lower-risk properties (e.g., new construction, existing homes with newer roofs), accepting new business for homeowners/condo products only when bundled with a Progressive personal auto policy, where permitted, and exiting the non-owner-occupied home market. For our homeowners/ condo products, PIFs were up about 14% in states where we are looking to expand our footprint and down 12% in higher-risk states where we are looking to reduce our exposure.
Advancing our segmentation capabilities in personal property is a continued focus and, through the end of the first quarter 2025, we had elevated our next generation product models of 5.0 or higher in 22 states that represented 62% of our trailing 12-month homeowners product NPW. Key features include expanded peril rating and the introduction of new rating variables. We also continued to take rate where needed and increased our personal property rates about 2%, in the aggregate, in the first quarter 2025, bringing the trailing 12-month aggregate rate increase to about 15%.
Our
Core commercial auto NPW growth was flat for the quarter despite having positive PIF growth due to a shift in the mix of business. We continued to see strong growth in our business auto and contractor BMTs during the quarter, driven by quote and conversion improvements, but also continued to face challenges in our for-hire trucking and for-hire specialty BMTs, which have higher premiums per policy than our business auto and contractor BMTs.
The commercial auto industry (excluding Progressive) ended the year at an estimated 111.4 CR. Industry data indicates competitors are taking rate increases.
On the capital management side, we came into 2025 with a robust capital position and that has proved beneficial as we continued to grow during the first quarter. Even as we experienced turbulent markets and strong premium growth during the quarter, we were able to generate significant capital through positive cash flows and investment returns and ended the quarter with a debt-to-total capital ratio of 19.2%, which remains near the lower end of our historical range. We believe that the combination of operational momentum and our strong capital position will continue to allow us to pursue robust profitable growth.
In the first quarter of 2025, our investment portfolio saw a retuof 2.2%. Macroeconomic uncertainty rose significantly during the quarter, impacting market returns. Our fixed-income retuwas 2.5% for the quarter as yields dropped. Our equity portfolio returned -5.0% as market prices decreased significantly versus a 9.9% increase in first quarter 2024, contributing to a substantial decline in this component of net income. Our investment portfolio remains in a conservative posture and is highly liquid with 56% of our portfolio in short-term securities or treasury bonds.
As I often do, I like to share comments from our customers. This one felt really special because we spend a lot of time making sure each customer feels confident that they are getting great coverage, service, and rates. We seek to respect each customer as an individual, and not just another number, and to build that care into all aspects of our communications.
Courtney’s comments summarize how we want every interaction to be, which is easy, clear, and straightforward.
Dear Progressive Team,
I just wanted to take a moment to say how easy and stress-free it was to purchase my car and renters insurance through your website. I was expecting a long, complicated process, but instead, everything was super straightforward. The site was simple to navigate, loved the customizable options in the dropdowns, and I really appreciated how clear all the coverage options were-it made choosing the right policy an absolute breeze.
Sure, I can talk about how “Getting a quote was quick” and “Bundling my policies saved me both time and money”… which is always a huge plus, BUT what made your company stand out is – I never once felt lost or confused during the process, which isn’t always the case when dealing with insurance!
So, I just wanted to send a quick “thank you” for making everything so easy. I’ll definitely be recommending Progressive to friends and family!
Tired mom of two 16yr olds, a 15yr old, and 14yr old Courtney
We head into the second quarter 2025 excited about the opportunities that lie ahead of us as we aim to remain nimble as events of the world unfold.
Stay well and be kind to others,
President and Chief Executive Officer
Financial Policies
Progressive balances operating risk with risk of investing and financing activities in order to have sufficient capital to support all the insurance we can profitably underwrite and service. Risks arise in all operational and functional areas, and, therefore, must be assessed holistically, accounting for the offsetting and compounding effects of the separate sources of risk within Progressive.
We use risk management tools to quantify the amount of capital needed, in addition to surplus, to absorb consequences of events such as unfavorable loss reserve development, litigation, weather-related catastrophes, and investment-market corrections. Our financial policies define our allocation of risk and we measure our performance against them. We will invest capital in expanding business operations when, in our view, future opportunities meet our financial objectives and policies. Under-leveraged capital will be returned to investors. We expect to eaa retuon equity greater than its cost. Presented is an overview of Progressive’s Operating, Investing, and Financing policies.
Operating Maintain pricing and reserving discipline
-
Manage profitability targets and operational performance at our lowest level of product definition
-
Sustain premiums-to-surplus ratios at efficient levels, and at or below applicable state regulations, for each insurance subsidiary
-
Ensure loss reserves are adequate and develop with minimal variance
Investing Maintain a liquid, diversified, high-quality investment portfolio
-
Manage on a total retubasis
-
Manage interest rate, credit, prepayment, extension, and concentration risk
-
Allocate portfolio between two groups:
-
Group I – Target 0% to 25% (common equities; nonredeemable preferred stocks; redeemable preferred stocks, except for 50% of investment-grade redeemable preferred stocks with cumulative dividends; and all other non-investment-grade fixed-maturity securities)
-
Group II – Target 75% to 100% (short-term securities and all other fixed-maturity securities)
Financing Maintain sufficient capital to support our business
-
-
Maintain debt below 30% of total capital at book value
-
Neutralize dilution from equity-based compensation in the year of issuance through share repurchases
-
Use under-leveraged capital to repurchase shares and pay dividends
Objectives and Policy Scorecard
Three Months Ended Target 2025 |
Years Ended |
5 Years1 |
10 Years1 |
||||
2024 |
2023 |
2022 |
|||||
Underwriting margin: |
|||||||
Progressive2 |
4 % |
14.0 % |
11.2 % |
5.1 % |
4.2 % |
7.6 % |
7.6 % |
Industry3 |
na |
||||||||||||| |
||||||||||||| |
(4.6) % |
(11.8) % |
(1.4)% |
(1.7)% |
Net premiums written growth: |
|||||||
Progressive |
(a) |
17 % |
21 % |
20 % |
10 % |
15 % |
15 % |
Industry3 |
na |
||||||||||||| |
||||||||||||| |
14 % |
6 % |
5 % |
6 % |
Policies in force growth: |
|||||||
Personal Lines |
|||||||
Agency – auto |
(a) |
18 % |
17 % |
7 % |
(1) % |
7 % |
8 % |
Direct – auto |
(a) |
25 % |
25 % |
10 % |
6 % |
12 % |
12 % |
Special lines |
(a) |
9 % |
9 % |
7 % |
5 % |
7 % |
5 % |
Property |
(a) |
11 % |
14 % |
9 % |
3 % |
10 % |
nm |
|
(a) |
6 % |
4 % |
5 % |
8 % |
9 % |
8 % |
Companywide premiums-to-surplus ratio |
(b) |
na |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
na |
na |
Investment allocation: |
|||||||
Group I |
≤25 % |
5 % |
6 % |
7 % |
10 % |
na |
na |
Group II |
≥75 % |
95 % |
94 % |
93 % |
90 % |
na |
na |
Debt-to-total capital ratio |
<30 % |
19.2 % |
21.2 % |
25.4 % |
28.7 % |
na |
na |
Retuon average common shareholders’ equity – trailing 12 months: |
|||||||
Net income |
(c) |
34.2 % |
35.5 % |
22.9 % |
4.4 % |
24.4 % |
23.6 % |
Comprehensive income (loss) |
(c) |
39.3 % |
36.4 % |
30.0 % |
(13.5) % |
22.4 % |
22.8 % |
-
Grow as fast as possible, constrained only by our profitability objective and our ability to provide high-quality customer service.
-
Determined separately for each insurance subsidiary.
-
Progressive does not have a predetermined target for retuon average common shareholders’ equity. na = not applicable.
nm = not meaningful; personal property business written by Progressive prior to
April 2015 was negligible.1Represents results over the respective time period; growth represents average annual compounded rate of increase (decrease) as of
December 31, 2024 .2Expressed as a percentage of net premiums earned. Underwriting profit (loss) is calculated by subtracting losses and loss adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs, and other underwriting expenses from the total of net premiums earned and fees and other revenues.
3Industry results represent private passenger auto insurance market data as reported by
A.M. Best Company, Inc. The industry underwriting margin excludes the effect of policyholder dividends. Final comparable industry data for 2024 will not be available until our third quarter 2025 report. The 5- and 10-year growth rates are presented on a one-year lag basis for the industry.The Progressive Corporation and Subsidiaries Operating ResultsPersonal Lines Business
Commercial Lines ($ in billions)
Vehicles
Property
Total
Business
Net premiums written
Three months ended
March 31 ,2025
$ 17.6 $ 0.7 $ 18.3 $ 3.9 2024
14.5
0.7
15.2
3.7
Growth over prior period
Net premiums earned
21 %
0 %
20 %
5 %
Three months ended
March 31 ,2025
$ 15.9 $ 0.8 $ 16.7 $ 2.7 2024
12.9
0.7
13.6
2.6
Growth over prior period
24 %
9 %
23 %
6 %
March 31 ,2025
31,554
3,576
35,130
1,162
2024
26,524
3,209
29,733
1,101
Growth over prior period
19 %
11 %
18 %
6 %
(# in thousands) Policies in Force
Underwriting Ratios
Three months ended
March 31 ,Loss and loss adjustment expense ratio – 2025
65.4
67.8
Underwriting expense ratio – 2025
20.3
19.7
Combined ratio – 2025
85.7
87.5
Combined ratio – 2024
85.0
91.8
Change over prior period
0.7 pts.
(4.3)
pts.
The Progressive Corporation and SubsidiariesConsolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income
(unaudited)
Three Months Ended
March 31 ,2025
2024
(millions – except per share amounts)
Revenues
Net premiums earned
$ 19,409 $ 16,149 Investment income
814
618
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales
1
(146)
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities
(213)
302
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities
(212)
156
Fees and other revenues
287
236
Service revenues
111
84
Total revenues
20,409
17,243
Expenses
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
12,804
10,972
Policy acquisition costs
1,456
1,232
Other underwriting expenses
2,719
1,931
Investment expenses
7
6
Service expenses
117
92
Interest expense
70
70
Total expenses
17,173
14,303
Net Income
Income before income taxes
3,236
2,940
Provision for income taxes
669
609
Net income
2,567
2,331
Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Decrease (increase) in total net unrealized losses on fixed-maturity securities
899
(208)
Comprehensive income (loss)
$ 3,466 $ 2,123 Computation of Earnings Per Common Share
Net income
$ 2,567 $ 2,331 Less: Preferred share dividends and other1
0
17
Net income available to common shareholders
$ 2,567 $ 2,314 Average common shares outstanding – Basic
586.0
585.4
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation
1.7
1.9
Total average equivalent common shares – Diluted
587.7
587.3
Basic: Earnings per common share
$ 4.38 $ 3.95 Diluted: Earnings per common share
$ 4.37 $ 3.94 1All of our outstanding Serial Preferred Shares, Series B, were redeemed in
February 2024 .See notes to consolidated financial statements.
The Progressive Corporation and SubsidiariesConsolidated Balance Sheets
(unaudited)
March 31 ,December 31 ,(millions)
2025
2024
2024
Assets
Available-for-sale securities, at fair value:
Fixed maturities (amortized cost:
$77,754 ,$65,949 , and$77,126 )$ 77,101 $ 63,630 $ 75,332 Short-term investments (amortized cost:
$2,595 ,$1,327 , and$615 )2,595
1,327
615
Total available-for-sale securities
79,696
64,957
75,947
Equity securities, at fair value:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks (cost:
$608 ,$931 , and$756 )584
886
728
Common equities (cost:
$774 ,$708 , and$745 )3,384
3,195
3,575
Total equity securities
3,968
4,081
4,303
Total investments
83,664
69,038
80,250
Cash and cash equivalents
195
155
143
Restricted cash and cash equivalents
12
13
11
Total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and restricted cash equivalents
207
168
154
Accrued investment income
584
464
594
Premiums receivable, net of allowance for credit losses of
$473 ,$328 , and$460 16,811
14,193
14,369
Reinsurance recoverables
4,449
5,003
4,765
Prepaid reinsurance premiums
306
210
349
Deferred acquisition costs
2,068
1,818
1,961
Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of
$1,490 ,$1,580 , and$1,461 854
756
790
Net federal deferred income taxes
860
1,032
954
Other assets
1,606
1,446
1,559
Total assets
$ 111,409 $ 94,128 $ 105,745 Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity
Unearned premiums
$ 26,612 $ 22,907 $ 23,858 Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves
39,822
34,831
39,057
Accounts payable, accrued expenses, and other liabilities
9,127
7,689
10,346
Debt1
6,894
6,890
6,893
Total liabilities
82,455
72,317
80,154
Common shares,
$1.00 par value (authorized 900; issued 798, including treasury shares of 212)586
586
586
Paid-in capital
2,160
2,029
2,145
Retained earnings
26,732
21,020
24,283
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss):
Net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities
(509)
(1,809)
(1,408)
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions
(14)
(14)
(14)
Foreign currency translation adjustment
(1)
(1)
(1)
Total accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
(524)
(1,824)
(1,423)
Total shareholders’ equity
28,954
21,811
25,591
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity
$ 111,409 $ 94,128 $ 105,745 1Consists solely of long-term debt. See Note 4 – Debt for further discussion. See notes to consolidated financial statements.
The Progressive Corporation and SubsidiariesConsolidated Statements of Changes in Shareholders’ Equity
(unaudited)
Three Months Ended
March 31 ,2025
2024
(millions – except per share amounts)
Serial
Preferred Shares , No Par ValueBalance, beginning of period
$ 0 $ 494 Redemption of Serial Preferred Shares, Series B1
0
(494)
Balance, end of period
0
0
Common Shares,
$1.00 Par ValueBalance, beginning of period
586
585
Treasury shares purchased0
0
Net restricted equity awards issued/vested
0
1
Balance, end of period
586
586
Paid-In Capital Balance, beginning of period
2,145
2,013
Amortization of equity-based compensation
16
17
Treasury shares purchased(1)
(1)
Net restricted equity awards issued/vested
0
(1)
Reinvested dividends on restricted stock units
0
1
Balance, end of period
2,160
2,029
Retained Earnings
Balance, beginning of period
24,283
18,801
Net income
2,567
2,331
Treasury shares purchased(53)
(36)
Cash dividends declared on common shares (
$0.10 and$0.10 per share)1(59)
(59)
Cash dividends declared on Serial Preferred Shares, Series B (
$0 and$15.688377 per share)10
(8)
Reinvested dividends on restricted stock units
0
(1)
Other, net
(6)
(8)
Balance, end of period
26,732
21,020
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)
Balance, beginning of period
(1,423)
(1,616)
Other comprehensive income (loss)
899
(208)
Balance, end of period
(524)
(1,824)
Total shareholders’ equity
$ 28,954 $ 21,811 1See Note 9 – Dividends for further discussion.
There are 20 million Serial Preferred Shares authorized. There are 5 million Voting Preference Shares authorized; no such shares have been issued. See notes to consolidated financial statements.
The Progressive Corporation and SubsidiariesConsolidated Statements of Cash Flows
(unaudited)
Three Months Ended
March 31 ,2025
2024
(millions)
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income
$ 2,567 $ 2,331 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation
70
70
Net amortization (accretion) of fixed-income securities
(21)
(7)
Amortization of equity-based compensation
16
17
Net realized (gains) losses on securities
212
(156)
Net (gains) losses on disposition of property and equipment
3
(2)
Changes in:
Premiums receivable
(2,442)
(2,235)
Reinsurance recoverables
316
91
Prepaid reinsurance premiums
43
40
Deferred acquisition costs
(107)
(131)
Income taxes
667
609
Unearned premiums
2,754
2,773
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves
765
442
Accounts payable, accrued expenses, and other liabilities
334
458
Other, net
(34)
(65)
Net cash provided by operating activities
5,143
4,235
Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Purchases:
Fixed maturities
(17,324)
(13,288)
Equity securities
(86)
(32)
Sales:
Fixed maturities
14,721
7,765
Equity securities
149
58
Maturities, paydowns, calls, and other:
Fixed maturities
1,950
1,855
Equity securities
87
24
Net (purchases) sales of short-term investments
(1,964)
479
Net change in unsettled security transactions
172
62
Purchases of property and equipment
(59)
(50)
Sales of property and equipment
13
3
Net cash used in investing activities
(2,341)
(3,124)
Cash Flows From Financing Activities
Dividends paid to common shareholders
(2,695)
(498)
Acquisition of treasury shares for equity award tax liabilities
(54)
(37)
Redemption of preferred shares
0
(500)
Dividends paid to preferred shareholders
0
(8)
Net cash used in financing activities
(2,749)
(1,043)
Increase in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and restricted cash equivalents
53
68
Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and restricted cash equivalents –
January 1 154
100
Cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and restricted cash equivalents –
March 31 $ 207 $ 168 See notes to consolidated financial statements.
The Progressive Corporation and Subsidiaries Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements(unaudited)-
BASIS OF REPORTING AND ACCOUNTING
The accompanying consolidated financial statements include the accounts of
The Progressive Corporation and our wholly owned insurance subsidiaries and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates in which we have a controlling financial interest (Progressive).The consolidated financial statements reflect all normal recurring adjustments that, in the opinion of management, were necessary for a fair statement of the results for the interim periods presented. The results of operations for the period ended
March 31, 2025 , are not necessarily indicative of the results expected for the full year. These consolidated financial statements and the notes thereto should be read in conjunction with Progressive’s audited financial statements and accompanying notes included in Exhibit 13 to our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year endedDecember 31, 2024 (2024 Annual Report to Shareholders).Premiums Receivable
We perform analyses to evaluate our premiums receivable for expected credit losses. See our 2024 Annual Report to Shareholders for a discussion on our premiums receivable allowance for credit loss policy. The following table summarizes changes in our allowance for credit loss exposure on our premiums receivable:
Three Months Ended
March 31 ,(millions)
2025
2024
Allowance for credit losses, beginning of period
$ 460 $369
Increase in allowance1
153
107
Write-offs2
(140)
(148)
Allowance for credit losses, end of period
$ 473 $328
1Represents the incremental increase in other underwriting expenses.
2Represents the portion of allowance that is reversed when the premiums receivable balances are written off. Premiums receivable balances are written off once we have exhausted our collection efforts.
Property – Held for Sale
At
March 31, 2025 and 2024, andDecember 31, 2024 , we had held for sale properties of$117 million ,$170 million , and$129 million , respectively, which are included in other assets on our consolidated balance sheets.New Accounting Standards
We did not adopt any new accounting standards during the three months ended
March 31, 2025 , and there were no recently issued accounting standards that are expected to materially impact our financial condition or results of operations. -
INVESTMENTS
The following tables present the composition of our investment portfolio by major security type:
Net Holding % of
Gross Unrealized
Gross Unrealized
Period Gains
Fair
Total Fair
($ in millions)
Cost
Gains
Losses
(Losses)
Value
Value
March 31, 2025 Available-for-sale securities:
Fixed maturities:
U.S. government obligations $44,523
$
391
$
(596)
$
0
$
44,318
53.0 %
State and local government obligations
2,688
6
(90)
0
2,604
3.1
Foreign government obligations
16
0
0
0
16
0
Corporate and other debt securities
16,047
127
(156)
(2)
16,016
19.2
Residential mortgage-backed securities
2,172
18
(8)
1
2,183
2.6
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
5,144
5
(324)
0
4,825
5.8
Other asset-backed securities
7,164
25
(50)
0
7,139
8.5
Total fixed maturities
77,754
572
(1,224)
(1)
77,101
92.2
Short-term investments
2,595
0
0
0
2,595
3.1
Total available-for-sale securities
80,349
572
(1,224)
(1)
79,696
95.3
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
608
0
0
(24)
584
0.7
Common equities
774
0
0
2,610
3,384
4.0
Total equity securities
1,382
0
0
2,586
3,968
4.7
Total portfolio1$
81,731
$
572
$
(1,224)
$
2,585
$
83,664
100.0 %
Net Holding % of
Gross Unrealized
Gross Unrealized
Period Gains
Fair
Total Fair
($ in millions)
Cost
Gains
Losses
(Losses)
Value
Value
March 31, 2024 Available-for-sale securities:
Fixed maturities:
U.S. government obligations$ 39,824 $ 66 $ (1,327) $ 0 $ 38,563 55.8 %
State and local government obligations
2,201
2
(143)
0
2,060
3.0
Foreign government obligations
17
0
(1)
0
16
0.1
Corporate and other debt securities
13,003
45
(330)
(23)
12,695
18.3
Residential mortgage-backed securities
390
0
(9)
2
383
0.6
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
4,368
3
(519)
0
3,852
5.6
Other asset-backed securities
6,146
9
(94)
0
6,061
8.8
Total fixed maturities
65,949
125
(2,423)
(21)
63,630
92.2
Short-term investments
1,327
0
0
0
1,327
1.9
Total available-for-sale securities
67,276
125
(2,423)
(21)
64,957
94.1
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
931
0
0
(45)
886
1.3
Common equities
708
0
0
2,487
3,195
4.6
Total equity securities
1,639
0
0
2,442
4,081
5.9
Total portfolio1
$ 68,915 $ 125 $ (2,423) $ 2,421 $ 69,038 100.0 %
Net
Holding
% of
Gross
Gross
Period
Total
Unrealized
Unrealized
Gains
Fair
Fair
($ in millions)
Cost
Gains
Losses
(Losses)
Value
Value
December 31, 2024 Available-for-sale securities:
Fixed maturities:
U.S. government obligations $47,103
$
36
$
(1,151)
$
0
$
45,988
57.3 %
State and local government obligations
2,893
2
(117)
0
2,778
3.5
Foreign government obligations
16
0
0
0
16
0
Corporate and other debt securities
14,111
65
(215)
(7)
13,954
17.4
Residential mortgage-backed securities
1,600
9
(11)
3
1,601
2.0
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
4,721
7
(376)
0
4,352
5.4
Other asset-backed securities
6,682
26
(65)
0
6,643
8.3
Total fixed maturities
77,126
145
(1,935)
(4)
75,332
93.9
Short-term investments
615
0
0
0
615
0.7
Total available-for-sale securities
77,741
145
(1,935)
(4)
75,947
94.6
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
756
0
0
(28)
728
0.9
Common equities
745
0
0
2,830
3,575
4.5
Total equity securities
1,501
0
0
2,802
4,303
5.4
Total portfolio1
$ 79,242 $ 145 $ (1,935) $ 2,798 $ 80,250 100.0 %
1At
March 31, 2025 and 2024 andDecember 31, 2024 , we had$297 million ,$16 million , and$125 million , respectively, of net unsettled security transactions included in other liabilities.The total fair value of the portfolio at
March 31, 2025 and 2024 andDecember 31, 2024 , included$3.5 billion ,$3.2 billion , and$6.2 billion , respectively, of securities held in a consolidated, non-insurance subsidiary of the holding company, net of unsettled security transactions. A portion of the investments held atDecember 31, 2024 were sold and proceeds used to pay our common share dividends inJanuary 2025 ; see Note 9 – Dividends for additional information.The
March 31, 2024 , corporate and other debt securities in our Note 2 – Investments and Note 3 – Fair Value tables include amounts that were previously reported as redeemable preferred stocks. The reclassification was to reflect the accurate categorization based on the underlying features of these securities; see Note 2 – Investments in our 2024 Annual Report to Shareholders for further discussion.At
March 31, 2025 , bonds and certificates of deposit in the principal amount of$785 million were on deposit to meet state insurance regulatory requirements. We did not hold any securities of any one issuer, excludingU.S. government obligations, with an aggregate cost or fair value exceeding 10% of total shareholders’ equity atMarch 31, 2025 or 2024, orDecember 31, 2024 . AtMarch 31, 2025 , we did not hold any debt securities that were non-income producing during the preceding 12 months.Hybrid Securities Certain securities in our fixed-maturity portfolio are accounted for as hybrid securities because they contain embedded derivatives that are not deemed to be clearly and closely related to the host investments. These securities are reported at fair value:March 31,
(millions)
2025
2024
December 31, 2024 Fixed Maturities:
Corporate and other debt securities
$ 632 $ 648 $
608
Residential mortgage-backed securities
579
300
479
Other asset-backed securities
0
10
1
Total hybrid securities
$ 1,211 $ 958 $
1,088
Since the embedded derivatives (e.g., change-in-control put option, debt-to-equity conversion, or any other feature unrelated to the credit quality or risk of default of the issuer that could impact the amount or timing of our expected future cash flows) do not have observable intrinsic values, we use the fair value option to record the changes in fair value of these securities through income as a component of net realized gains (losses).
Fixed Maturities The composition of fixed maturities by maturity at
March 31, 2025 , was:(millions)
Cost
Fair Value
Less than one year
$ 8,532 $ 8,486 One to five years
48,451
47,974
Five to ten years
20,460
20,326
Ten years or greater
311
315
Total
$ 77,754 $ 77,101 Asset-backed securities are classified in the maturity distribution table based upon their projected cash flows. All other securities that do not have a single maturity date are reported based upon expected average maturity. Contractual maturities may differ from expected maturities because the issuers of the securities may have the right to call or prepay obligations.
Gross Unrealized Losses The following tables show the composition of gross unrealized losses by major security type and by the length of time that individual securities have been in a continuous unrealized loss position:
Less than 12 Months 12 Months or Greater
($ in millions)
Total No. of Sec.
Total Fair Value
Gross Unrealized
Losses
No. of Sec.
Fair Value
Gross Unrealized
Losses
No. of Sec.
Fair Value
Gross Unrealized
Losses
March 31, 2025 U.S. government obligations85
$ 16,851 $ (596) 18
$ 9,284 $ (69) 67
$ 7,567 $ (527) State and local government obligations
307
1,871
(90)
70
445
(2)
237
1,426
(88)
Corporate and other debt securities
210
4,967
(156)
56
1,352
(12)
154
3,615
(144)
Residential mortgage-backed securities
47
674
(8)
25
628
(2)
22
46
(6)
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
165
3,653
(324)
22
597
(4)
143
3,056
(320)
Other asset-backed securities
89
2,046
(50)
46
1,128
(3)
43
918
(47)
Total fixed maturities
903
$ 30,062 $ (1,224) 237
$ 13,434 $ (92) 666
$ 16,628 $ (1,132) Less than 12 Months 12 Months or Greater
Total No. of
Total Fair
Gross Unrealized
No. of
Fair
Gross Unrealized
No. of
Fair
Gross Unrealized
($ in millions)
Sec.
Value
Losses
Sec.
Value
Losses
Sec.
Value
Losses
March 31, 2024 U.S. government obligations139
$ 32,968 $ (1,327) 37
$ 21,635 $ (295) 102
$ 11,333 $ (1,032) State and local government obligations
330
1,923
(143)
41
251
(2)
289
1,672
(141)
Foreign government obligations
1
16
(1)
0
0
0
1
16
(1)
Corporate and other debt securities
366
8,127
(330)
106
2,369
(20)
260
5,758
(310)
Residential mortgage-backed securities
35
78
(9)
1
0
0
34
78
(9)
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
181
3,742
(519)
4
191
(2)
177
3,551
(517)
Other asset-backed securities
193
3,259
(94)
59
1,303
(2)
134
1,956
(92)
Total fixed maturities
1,245
$ 50,113 $ (2,423) 248
$ 25,749 $ (321) 997
$ 24,364 $ (2,102) Less than 12 Months 12 Months or Greater
Total No. of
Total Fair
Gross Unrealized
No. of
Fair
Gross Unrealized
No. of
Fair
Gross Unrealized
($ in millions)
Sec.
Value
Losses
Sec.
Value
Losses
Sec.
Value
Losses
December 31, 2024 U.S. government obligations113
$ 38,782 $ (1,151) 39
$ 30,257 $ (418) 74
$ 8,525 $ (733) State and local government obligations
379
2,339
(117)
127
783
(6)
252
1,556
(111)
Corporate and other debt securities
304
7,034
(215)
122
2,935
(33)
182
4,099
(182)
Residential mortgage-backed securities
40
428
(11)
12
377
(4)
28
51
(7)
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
153
3,294
(376)
8
264
(16)
145
3,030
(360)
Other asset-backed securities
84
1,907
(65)
34
912
(8)
50
995
(57)
Total fixed maturities
1,073
$ 53,784 $ (1,935) 342
$ 35,528 $ (485) 731
$ 18,256 $ (1,450) A review of the securities in an unrealized loss position indicated that the issuers were current with respect to their interest obligations and that there was no evidence of deterioration of the current cash flow projections that would indicate we would not receive the remaining principal at maturity.
We had three securities that had their credit ratings downgraded, with a combined fair value of
$90 million and an unrealized loss of$5 million as ofMarch 31, 2025 . Based on our analysis of these securities, no credit loss allowance was required.Allowance For Credit and Uncollectible Losses We are required to measure the amount of potential credit losses for all fixed-maturity securities in an unrealized loss position. We did not record any allowances for credit losses or any write-offs for credit losses deemed to be uncollectible during the first three months of 2025 or 2024, and did not have a material credit loss allowance balance as of
March 31, 2025 and 2024, orDecember 31, 2024 . We considered several factors and inputs related to the individual securities as part of our analysis. The methodology and significant inputs used to measure the amount of credit losses in our portfolio included:-
current performance indicators on the business model or underlying assets (e.g., delinquency rates, foreclosure rates, and default rates);
-
credit support (via current levels of subordination);
-
historical credit ratings; and
-
updated cash flow expectations based upon these performance indicators.
In order to determine the amount of credit loss, if any, we initially reviewed securities in a loss position to determine whether it was likely that we would be required, or intended, to sell any of the securities prior to the recovery of their respective cost bases (which could be maturity). If we were likely to, or intended to, sell prior to a potential recovery, we would write off the unrealized loss. We did not have an intention to sell any securities in a gross unrealized loss position at
March 31, 2025 orMarch 31, 2024 .For those securities that we determined we were not likely to, or did not intend to, sell prior to a potential recovery,
we performed additional analysis to determine if the loss was credit related. For securities subject to credit-related loss, we calculated the net present value (NPV) of the cash flows expected (i.e., expected recovery value) using the current book yield for each security. The NPV was then compared to the security’s current amortized value to determine if a credit loss existed. In the event that the NPV was below the amortized value, and the amount was determined to be material on any specific security, or in the aggregate, a credit loss would be deemed to exist, and either an allowance for credit losses would be created, or if an allowance currently existed, either a recovery of the previous allowance, or an incremental loss, would be recorded to net realized gains (losses) on securities.
As of
March 31, 2025 and 2024, andDecember 31, 2024 , we believe that none of the unrealized losses on our fixed-maturity securities were related to material credit losses on any specific securities, or in the aggregate. We continue to expect all the securities in our fixed-maturity portfolio to pay their principal and interest obligations.In addition, we reviewed our accrued investment income outstanding on those securities in an unrealized loss position at
March 31, 2025 and 2024, andDecember 31, 2024 , to determine if the accrued interest amounts were uncollectible. Based on our analysis, we believe the issuers have sufficient liquidity and capital reserves to meet their current interest, and future principal obligations and, therefore, did not write off any accrued income as uncollectible atMarch 31, 2025 and 2024, orDecember 31, 2024 .Realized Gains (Losses) The components of net realized gains (losses) for the three months ended
March 31 , were:Three Months
(millions)
2025
2024
Gross realized gains on security sales
Available-for-sale securities:
U.S. government obligations$ 53 $ 0 Corporate and other debt securities
1
3
Total available-for-sale securities
54
3
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
2
0
Common equities
35
12
Total equity securities
37
12
Subtotal gross realized gains on security sales
91
15
Gross realized losses on security sales
Available-for-sale securities:
U.S. government obligations(77)
(135)
State and local government obligations
(2)
0
Corporate and other debt securities
(1)
(15)
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
(4)
(5)
Total available-for-sale securities
(84)
(155)
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
(2)
(6)
Common equities
(4)
0
Total equity securities
(6)
(6)
Subtotal gross realized losses on security sales
(90)
(161)
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales
Available-for-sale securities:
U.S. government obligations(24)
(135)
State and local government obligations
(2)
0
Corporate and other debt securities
0
(12)
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
(4)
(5)
Total available-for-sale securities
(30)
(152)
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
0
(6)
Common equities
31
12
Total equity securities
31
6
Subtotal net realized gains (losses) on security sales
1
(146)
Net holding period gains (losses)
Hybrid securities
3
8
Equity securities
(216)
294
Subtotal net holding period gains (losses)
(213)
302
Total net realized gains (losses) on securities
$ (212) $ 156 Realized gains (losses) on securities sold are computed using the first-in-first-out method. During the first three months of 2025 and 2024, the majority of our security sales were
U.S. Treasury Notes that were sold for duration management. We also selectively sold securities that we viewed as having less attractive risk/reward profiles during the first three months of 2025 and 2024.The following table reflects our holding period realized gains (losses) recognized on equity securities held at the respective quarter ends:
Three Months
(millions)
2025
2024
Total net gains (losses) recognized during the period on equity securities
$ (185) $300
Less: Net gains (losses) recognized on equity securities sold during the period
31
6
Net holding period gains (losses) recognized during the period on equity securities held at period end
$ (216) $294
Net Investment Income The components of net investment income for the three months ended
March 31 , were:Three Months
(millions)
2025
2024
Available-for-sale securities:
Fixed maturities:
U.S. government obligations$ 422 $307
State and local government obligations
19
13
Corporate and other debt securities
171
125
Residential mortgage-backed securities
25
5
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
53
46
Other asset-backed securities
84
78
Total fixed maturities
774
574
Short-term investments
18
19
Total available-for-sale securities
792
593
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
8
11
Common equities
14
14
Total equity securities
22
25
Investment income
814
618
Investment expenses
(7)
(6)
Net investment income
$ 807 $612
On a year-over-year basis, investment income (interest and dividends) increased 32% for the three months ended
March 31, 2025 , compared to the same period last year. The increase primarily reflects growth in invested assets and an increase in recurring investment book yield. The book yield increase primarily reflected investing new cash from insurance operations, and proceeds from maturing bonds, in higher coupon rate securities. -
-
FAIR VALUE
We have categorized our financial instruments, based on the degree of subjectivity inherent in the method by which they are valued, into a fair value hierarchy of three levels, as follows:
-
Level 1: Inputs are unadjusted, quoted prices in active markets for identical instruments at the measurement date (e.g.,
U.S. government obligations, which are continually priced on a daily basis, active exchange-traded equity securities, and certain short-term securities). -
Level 2: Inputs (other than quoted prices included within Level 1) that are observable for the instrument either directly or indirectly. This includes: (i) quoted prices for similar instruments in active markets, (ii) quoted prices for identical or similar instruments in markets that are not active, (iii) inputs other than quoted prices that are observable for the instruments, and (iv) inputs that
are derived principally from or corroborated by observable market data by correlation or other means.
-
Level 3: Inputs that are unobservable. Unobservable inputs reflect our subjective evaluation about the assumptions market participants would use in pricing the financial instrument (e.g., certain privately held investments).
Determining the fair value of the investment portfolio is the responsibility of management. As part of that responsibility, we evaluate whether a market is distressed or inactive in determining the fair value for our portfolio. We review certain market level inputs to evaluate whether sufficient activity, volume, and new issuances exist to create an active market. Based on this evaluation, we concluded that there was sufficient activity related to the sectors and securities for which we obtained valuations.
The composition of the investment portfolio by major security type and our outstanding debt was:
Fair Value
(millions)
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Total
Cost
March 31, 2025 Fixed maturities:
U.S. government obligations$ 44,318 $ 0 $ 0 $ 44,318 $ 44,523 State and local government obligations
0
2,604
0
2,604
2,688
Foreign government obligations
0
16
0
16
16
Corporate and other debt securities
0
16,011
5
16,016
16,047
Residential mortgage-backed securities
0
2,183
0
2,183
2,172
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
0
4,825
0
4,825
5,144
Other asset-backed securities
0
7,139
0
7,139
7,164
Total fixed maturities
44,318
32,778
5
77,101
77,754
Short-term investments
2,595
0
0
2,595
2,595
Total available-for-sale securities
46,913
32,778
5
79,696
80,349
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
0
524
60
584
608
Common equities:
Common stocks
3,344
0
9
3,353
743
Other risk investments
0
0
31
31
31
Subtotal common equities
3,344
0
40
3,384
774
Total equity securities
3,344
524
100
3,968
1,382
Total portfolio
$ 50,257 $ 33,302 $ 105 $ 83,664 $ 81,731 Debt
$ 0 $ 6,247 $ 0 $ 6,247 $ 6,894 Fair Value
(millions)
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Total
Cost
March 31, 2024 Fixed maturities:
U.S. government obligations$ 38,563 $ 0 $ 0 $ 38,563 $ 39,824 State and local government obligations
0
2,060
0
2,060
2,201
Foreign government obligations
0
16
0
16
17
Corporate and other debt securities
0
12,692
3
12,695
13,003
Residential mortgage-backed securities
0
383
0
383
390
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
0
3,852
0
3,852
4,368
Other asset-backed securities
0
6,061
0
6,061
6,146
Total fixed maturities
38,563
25,064
3
63,630
65,949
Short-term investments
1,327
0
0
1,327
1,327
Total available-for-sale securities
39,890
25,064
3
64,957
67,276
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
0
822
64
886
931
Common equities:
Common stocks
3,148
0
22
3,170
683
Other risk investments
0
0
25
25
25
Subtotal common equities
3,148
0
47
3,195
708
Total equity securities
3,148
822
111
4,081
1,639
Total portfolio
$ 43,038 $ 25,886 $ 114 $ 69,038 $ 68,915 Debt
$ 0 $ 6,298 $ 0 $ 6,298 $ 6,890 Fair Value
(millions)
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Total
Cost
December 31, 2024 Fixed maturities:
U.S. government obligations$ 45,988 $ 0 $ 0 $ 45,988 $ 47,103 State and local government obligations
0
2,778
0
2,778
2,893
Foreign government obligations
0
16
0
16
16
Corporate and other debt securities
0
13,949
5
13,954
14,111
Residential mortgage-backed securities
0
1,601
0
1,601
1,600
Commercial mortgage-backed securities
0
4,352
0
4,352
4,721
Other asset-backed securities
0
6,643
0
6,643
6,682
Total fixed maturities
45,988
29,339
5
75,332
77,126
Short-term investments
613
2
0
615
615
Total available-for-sale securities
46,601
29,341
5
75,947
77,741
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
0
676
52
728
756
Common equities:
Common stocks
3,527
0
23
3,550
720
Other risk investments
0
0
25
25
25
Subtotal common equities
3,527
0
48
3,575
745
Total equity securities
3,527
676
100
4,303
1,501
Total portfolio
$ 50,128 $ 30,017 $ 105 $ 80,250 $ 79,242 Debt
$ 0 $ 6,173 $ 0 $ 6,173 $ 6,893 Our portfolio valuations, excluding short-term investments, classified as either Level 1 or Level 2 in the above tables are priced exclusively by external sources, including pricing vendors, dealers/market makers, and exchange-quoted prices.
Our short-term investments classified as Level 1 are highly liquid, actively marketed, and have a very short duration, primarily 90 days or less to redemption. These securities are held at their original cost, adjusted for any accretion of discount, since that value very closely approximates what an active market participant would be willing to pay for such securities. The remainder of our short-term investments are classified as Level 2 and are not priced externally since these securities continually trade at par value. These securities are classified as Level 2 since they are primarily longer-dated securities issued by municipalities that contain either liquidity facilities or mandatory put features within one year.
At both
March 31, 2025 andDecember 31, 2024 , vendor-quoted prices represented 93% of our Level 1 classifications (excluding short-term investments), compared to 92% atMarch 31, 2024 . The securities quoted by vendors in Level 1 primarily represent our holdings inU.S. Treasury Notes, which are frequently traded, and the quotes are considered similar to exchange-traded quotes. The balance of our Level 1 pricing comes from quotes obtained directly from trades made on active exchanges.At
March 31, 2025 and 2024 andDecember 31, 2024 , vendor-quoted prices comprised 100% of our Level 2classifications (excluding short-term investments). In our process for selecting a source (e.g., dealer or pricing service) to provide pricing for securities in our portfolio, we reviewed documentation from the sources that detailed the pricing techniques and methodologies used by these sources and determined if their policies adequately considered market activity, either based on specific transactions for the particular security type or based on modeling of securities with similar credit quality, duration, yield, and structure that were recently transacted. Once a source is chosen, we continue to monitor any changes or modifications to their processes by reviewing their documentation on internal controls for pricing and market reviews. We review quality control measures of our sources as they become available to determine if any significant changes have occurred from period to period that might indicate issues or concerns regarding their evaluation or market coverage.
As part of our pricing procedures, we obtain quotes from more than one source to help us fully evaluate the market price of securities. However, our internal pricing policy is to use a consistent source for individual securities in order to maintain the integrity of our valuation process. Quotes obtained from the sources are not considered binding offers to transact. Under our policy, when a review of the valuation received from our selected source appears to be outside of what is considered market level activity (which is defined as trading at spreads or yields significantly different than those of comparable securities or outside the general sector level movement without a reasonable explanation), we may use an alternate source’s price. To
the extent we determine that it may be prudent to substitute one source’s price for another, we will contact the initial source to obtain an understanding of the factors that may be contributing to the significant price variance.
To allow us to determine if our initial source is providing a price that is outside of a reasonable range, we review our portfolio pricing on a weekly basis. When necessary, we challenge prices from our sources when a price provided does not match our expectations based on our evaluation of market trends and activity. Initially, we perform a review of our portfolio by sector to identify securities whose prices appear outside of a reasonable range. We then perform a more detailed review of fair values for securities disclosed as Level 2. We review dealer bids and quotes for these and/or similar securities to determine the market level context for our valuations. We then evaluate inputs relevant for each class of securities disclosed in the preceding hierarchy tables.
For structured debt securities, including commercial, residential, and other asset-backed securities, we evaluate available market-related data for these and similar securities related to collateral, delinquencies, and defaults for historical trends and reasonably estimable projections, as well as historical prepayment rates and current prepayment assumptions and cash flow estimates. We further stratify each class of structured debt securities into more finite sectors (e.g., planned amortization class, first pay, second pay, senior, and subordinated) and use duration, credit quality, and coupon to determine if the fair value is appropriate.
For corporate and other debt, nonredeemable preferred stock, and the notes issued by
The Progressive Corporation (see Note 4 – Debt), we review securities by duration, credit quality, and coupon, as well as changes in interest rate and credit spread movements within that stratification. The review also includes recent trades, including: volume traded at various levels that establish a market; issuer specific fundamentals; and industry-specific economic news as it comes to light.For municipal securities (e.g., general obligations, revenue, and housing), we stratify the portfolio to evaluate securities by type, duration, credit quality, and coupon to review price changes relative to credit spread and interest rate changes. Additionally, we look to economic data as it relates to geographic location as an indication of price-to-call or maturity predictors. For municipal housing securities, we look to changes in cash flow projections, both historical and reasonably estimable projections, to understand yield changes and their effect on valuation.
For short-term securities, we look at acquisition price relative to the coupon or yield. Since our short-term securities are typically 90 days or less to maturity, with the majority listed in Level 2 being 30 days or less to redemption, we believe that acquisition price is the best estimate of fair value.
We also review data assumptions as supplied by our sources to determine if that data is relevant to current market conditions. In addition, we independently review each sector for transaction volumes, new issuances, and changes in spreads, as well as the overall movement of interest rates along the yield curve to determine if sufficient activity and liquidity exists to provide a credible source for our market valuations.
During each valuation period, we create internal estimations of portfolio valuation (performance returns), based on current market-related activity (i.e., interest rate and credit spread movements and other credit-related factors) within each major sector of our portfolio. We compare our internally generated portfolio results with those generated based on quotes we receive externally and research material valuation differences. We compare our results to index returns for each major sector adjusting for duration and credit quality differences to better understand our portfolio’s results. Additionally, we review on a monthly basis our external sales transactions and compare the actual final market sales prices to previous market valuation prices. This review provides us further validation that our pricing sources are providing market level prices, since we are able to explain significant price changes (i.e., greater than 2%) as known events occur in the marketplace and affect a particular security’s price at sale.
This analysis provides us with additional comfort regarding the source’s process, the quality of its review, and its willingness to improve its analysis based on feedback from clients. We believe this effort helps ensure that we are reporting the most representative fair values for our securities.
After all the valuations are received and our review of Level 2 securities is complete, if the inputs used by vendors are determined to not contain sufficient observable market information, we will reclassify the affected securities to Level 3.
Except as described below, our Level 3 securities are priced externally; however, due to several factors (e.g., nature of the securities, level of activity, and lack of similar securities trading to obtain observable market level inputs), these valuations are more subjective in nature.
To the extent we receive prices from external sources (e.g., broker and valuation firm) for the Level 3 securities, we review those prices for reasonableness using internally developed assumptions and then compare our derived prices to the prices received from the external sources.
Based on our review, all prices received from external sources remained unadjusted.
If we do not receive prices from an external source, we perform an internal fair value comparison, which includes a review and analysis of market-comparable securities, to determine if fair value changes are needed. Based on this analysis, certain private equity investments included in the
Level 3 category remain valued at cost or were priced using a recent transaction as the basis for fair value. At least annually, these private equity investments are priced by an external source.
Our Level 3 other risk investments include securities accounted for under the equity method of accounting and, therefore, are not subject to fair value reporting. Since these securities represent less than 0.1% of our total portfolio, we include them in our Level 3 disclosures and report the activity from these investments as “other” changes in the summary of changes in fair value table and
categorize these securities as “pricing exemption securities” in the quantitative information table.
During the first three months of 2025 and for the full year of 2024, there were no material assets or liabilities measured at fair value on a nonrecurring basis.
Due to the relative size of the Level 3 securities’ fair values, compared to the total portfolio’s fair value, any changes in pricing methodology would not have a significant change in valuation that would materially impact net or comprehensive income.
The following tables provide a summary of changes in fair value associated with Level 3 assets for the three months ended
March 31, 2025 and 2024:Fair Value at
December 31 ,Calls/ Maturities/ Paydowns/
Level 3 Fair Value
Net Realized (Gain)/Loss
Change in
Net Transfers
Fair Value at
(millions)
Fixed maturities:
2024
Other Purchases Sales
on Sales
Valuation1
In (Out)
March 31, 2025
Corporate and other debt securities
$ 5 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 5 Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks
52
0
8
0
0
0
0
60
Common equities:
Common stocks
23
0
0
0
0
(14)
0
9
Other risk investments
25
6
0
0
0
0
0
31
Total Level 3 securities
$ 105 $ 6 $ 8 $ 0 $ 0 $ (14) $0
$ 105 Fair Value at
December 31 ,Calls/ Maturities/ Paydowns/
Level 3 Fair Value
Net Realized (Gain)/Loss
Change in
Net Transfers
Fair Value at
(millions)
Fixed maturities:
2023
Other Purchases Sales
on Sales
Valuation1
In (Out)
March 31, 2024
Corporate and other debt securities
$ 3 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 3
-
-
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks |
64 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
64 |
Common equities: |
||||||||
Common stocks |
22 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
Other risk investments |
21 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
Total Level 3 securities |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1For fixed maturities, these amounts are included in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) on our consolidated balance sheets. For equity securities, these amounts are included in our consolidated statements of comprehensive income.
The following tables provide a summary of the quantitative information about Level 3 fair value measurements for our applicable securities at
Quantitative Information about Level 3 Fair Value Measurements
($ in millions) |
at |
Fair Value |
Valuation Technique |
Unobservable Input |
Range of Input Values Increase (Decrease) |
Weighted Average Increase (Decrease) |
Fixed maturities: |
||||||
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
0.7% to |
||||
Corporate and other debt securities |
$ |
5 |
comparables |
price change % |
0.8% |
0.8 % |
Equity securities: |
||||||
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
(11.8)% to |
||||
Nonredeemable preferred stocks |
60 |
comparables |
price change % |
16.1% |
6.4 % |
|
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
(36.8)% to |
||||
Common stocks |
9 |
comparables |
price change % |
41.5% |
6.7 % |
|
Subtotal Level 3 securities |
74 |
|||||
Pricing exemption securities |
31 |
|||||
Total Level 3 securities |
$ |
105 |
Quantitative Information about Level 3 Fair Value Measurements
($ in millions) |
at |
Fair Value |
Valuation Technique |
Unobservable Input |
Range of Input Values Increase (Decrease) |
Weighted Average Increase (Decrease) |
Fixed maturities: |
||||||
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
(2.3)% to |
||||
Corporate and other debt securities |
$ |
3 |
comparables |
price change % |
1.2% |
(0.1)% |
Equity securities: |
||||||
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
3.4% to |
||||
Nonredeemable preferred stocks |
64 |
comparables |
price change % |
28.4% |
22.6 % |
|
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
(37.9)% to |
||||
Common stocks |
22 |
comparables |
price change % |
39.6% |
3.4 % |
|
Subtotal Level 3 securities |
89 |
|||||
Pricing exemption securities |
25 |
|||||
Total Level 3 securities |
$ |
114 |
Quantitative Information about Level 3 Fair Value Measurements
($ in millions) |
Fair Value at 2024 |
Valuation Technique |
Unobservable Input |
Range of Input Values Increase (Decrease) |
Weighted Average Increase (Decrease) |
|
Fixed maturities: |
||||||
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
(1.4)% to |
||||
Corporate and other debt securities |
$ |
5 |
comparables |
price change % |
(1.3)% |
(1.4)% |
Equity securities: |
||||||
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
(14.1)% to |
||||
Nonredeemable preferred stocks |
52 |
comparables |
price change % |
6.0% |
(2.7)% |
|
Market |
Weighted average market capitalization |
(41.3)% to |
||||
Common stocks |
23 |
comparables |
price change % |
95.9% |
6.0 % |
|
Subtotal Level 3 securities |
80 |
|||||
Pricing exemption securities |
25 |
|||||
Total Level 3 securities |
$ |
105 |
-
DEBT
Debt at each of the balance sheet periods consisted of the following Senior Notes:
($ in millions)
March 31, 2025 March 31, 2024 December 31, 2024 Principal
Amount Interest Rate
Issuance Date
Maturity Date
Carrying
Value
Fair Value
Carrying
Value
Fair Value
Carrying
Value
Fair Value
$ 500 2.45 %August 2016 2027
$ 499 $484
$ 499 $469
$ 499 $479
500
2.50
March 2022 2027
499 483
498 468
499 479
300
6 5/8
March 1999 2029
298 322
298 324
298 320
550
4.00
October 2018 2029
548 542
547 532
547 534
500
3.20
March 2020 2030
498 470
497 456
498 462
500
3.00
March 2022 2032
497 447
496 436
497 439
400
6.25
November 2002 2032
397 434
397 434
397 430
500
4.95
May 2023 2033
497 503
497 499
497 495
350
4.35
April 2014 2044
347 300
347 313
347 298
400
3.70
January 2015 2045
396 310
396 328
396 308
850
4.125
April 2017 2047
842 695
842 719
842 684
600
4.20
March 2018 2048
591 493
591 520
591 490
500
3.95
March 2020 2050
491 393
491 410
491 386
500
3.70
March 2022 2052
494 371
494 390
494 369
Total
$ 6,894 $ 6,247 $ 6,890 $ 6,298 $ 6,893 $ 6,173 There was no short-term debt outstanding as of the end of all periods presented.
The Progressive Corporation has a line of credit withPNC Bank, National Association (PNC), in the maximum principal amount of$300 million . See the 2024 Annual Report to Shareholders for a discussion of the terms of this line of credit. We had no borrowings under the line of credit that was available during the periods presented. -
INCOME TAXES
The effective tax rate for the three months ended
March 31, 2025 and 2024, was 20.7%.Deferred income taxes reflect the tax effects of temporary differences between the financial statement carrying amounts and the tax bases of assets and liabilities.
Although realization of the deferred tax assets is not assured, management believes that it is more likely than not that the deferred tax assets will be realized based on our expectation that we will be able to fully utilize the deductions that are ultimately recognized for tax purposes and, therefore, no valuation allowance was needed at
March 31, 2025 and 2024, andDecember 31, 2024 . -
LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSE RESERVES
We had net current income taxes payable of
$838 million ,$962 million , and$26 million atMarch 31, 2025 and 2024, andDecember 31, 2024 , respectively, which were reported in accounts payable, accrued expenses, and other liabilities on our consolidated balance sheets. The balance may fluctuate from period to period due to normal timing differences.At
March 31, 2025 and 2024, andDecember 31, 2024 , we have not recorded any unrecognized tax benefits or related interest and penalties.Activity in the loss and loss adjustment expense reserves is summarized as follows:
March 31,
(millions)
2025
2024
Balance at
January 1 $ 39,057 $ 34,389 Less reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses
4,487
4,789
Net balance at
January 1 34,570
29,600
Incurred related to:
Current year
13,082
10,983
Prior years
(278)
(11)
Total incurred
12,804
10,972
Paid related to:
Current year
4,881
4,422
Prior years
6,804
5,971
Total paid
11,685
10,393
Net balance at
March 31 35,689
30,179
Plus reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses
4,133
4,652
Balance at
March 31 $ 39,822 $ 34,831 We experienced favorable reserve development of
$278 million and$11 million during the first three months of 2025 and 2024, respectively, which is reflected as “incurred related to prior years“ in the table above.First Quarter 2025
-
The favorable prior year reserve development included approximately
$180 million attributable to accident year 2024,$90 million to accident year 2023, and the remainder to accident years 2022 and prior. -
Our personal auto products incurred about
$260 million of favorable loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserve development, with the agency and direct auto businesses each contributing about half. The favorable development was primarily due to lower than anticipated loss severity and frequency inFlorida . -
Our personal property products experienced about
$30 million of favorable development, primarily attributable to favorable development on 2024 catastrophe events.First Quarter 2024
-
The favorable prior year reserve development included approximately
$50 million of favorable development attributable to accident year 2023 and$15 million to accident year 2022; partially offset by unfavorable development attributable to accident years 2021 and prior. -
Our personal auto products incurred about
$100 million of favorable loss and LAE reserve development, in part due to lower than anticipated frequency inFlorida following tort reform that passed in the first quarter 2023, with about 60% attributable to the agency auto business and the balance in the direct auto business. -
Our
Commercial Lines business experienced about$70 million of unfavorable development, primarily driven by higher than anticipated severity in our commercial auto business forCalifornia andNew York .
-
-
SUPPLEMENTAL CASH FLOW INFORMATION
Cash and cash equivalents include bank demand deposits and daily overnight reverse repurchase commitments of funds held in bank demand deposit accounts by certain subsidiaries. The amount of overnight reverse repurchase commitments, which are not considered part of the investment portfolio, held by these subsidiaries at
March 31, 2025 and 2024, andDecember 31, 2024 , were$78 million ,$108 million , and$127 million , respectively. Restricted cash and restricted cash equivalents include collateral held against unpaid deductibles and cash that is restricted to pay flood claims under theNational Flood Insurance Program’s “Write Your Own” program, for which certain subsidiaries are participants.Non-cash activity included the following in the respective periods:
Three Months Ended
March 31 ,(millions) 2025 2024
Operating lease liabilities240 28
Common share dividends1
1Declared but unpaid. See Note 9 – Dividends for further discussion.
2From obtaining right-of-use assets.
In the respective periods, we paid the following:
(millions)
2025
2024
Interest
Three Months Ended March 31 ,
Operating lease liabilities 22 22
-
SEGMENT INFORMATION
Our Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos, special lines products (e.g., recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft), personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters, umbrella insurance, and flood insurance through the “Write Your Own” program for the National Flood Insurance Program. Property information for the three months ended
March 31, 2024 , was recast to conform to the current year presentation; see Note 10 – Segment Information in our 2024 Annual Report to Shareholders for further discussion.Our
Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-relatedgeneral liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry.
Our service businesses provide insurance-related services, including serving as an agent for homeowners, general liability, and workers’ compensation insurance, among other products, through programs in our direct Personal Lines and
Commercial Lines businesses. All segment revenues are generated from external customers; all intercompany transactions are eliminated in consolidation.Following are the operating results for the respective periods:
(millions)
Personal Lines
Commercial Lines Other1
Companywide
Three Months Ended
March 31, 2025 Net premiums earned
$ 16,710 $ 2,699 $
0
$ 19,409 Fees and other revenues
249
38
0
287
Total underwriting revenue
16,959
2,737
0
19,696
Losses and loss adjustment expenses:
Losses (excluding catastrophe losses)
9,109
1,559
0
10,668
Catastrophe losses
454
5
0
459
Loss adjustment expenses
1,390
287
0
1,677
Total losses and loss adjustment expenses
10,953
1,851
0
12,804
Underwriting expenses:
Distribution expenses2
2,348
286
0
2,634
Other underwriting expenses3
1,275
262
4
1,541
Total underwriting expenses
3,623
548
4
4,175
Pretax underwriting profit (loss)
$ 2,383 $ 338 $ (4) 2,717
Investment profit (loss)4
595
Service businesses profit (loss)
(6)
Interest expense
(70)
Total pretax profit (loss)
$ 3,236 (millions)
Personal Lines
Commercial Lines Other1
Companywide
Three Months Ended
March 31, 2024 Net premiums earned
$ 13,591 $ 2,558 $
0
$ 16,149 Fees and other revenues
196
40
0
236
Total underwriting revenue
13,787
2,598
0
16,385
Losses and loss adjustment expenses:
Losses (excluding catastrophe losses)
7,563
1,593
(2)
9,154
Catastrophe losses
338
9
0
347
Loss adjustment expenses
1,197
274
0
1,471
Total losses and loss adjustment expenses
9,098
1,876
(2)
10,972
Underwriting expenses:
Distribution expenses2
1,560
274
0
1,834
Other underwriting expenses3
1,088
239
2
1,329
Total underwriting expenses
2,648
513
2
3,163
Pretax underwriting profit (loss)
$ 2,041 $ 209 $ 0 2,250
Investment profit (loss)4
768
Service businesses profit (loss)
(8)
Interest expense
(70)
Total pretax profit (loss)
$ 2,940 1Includes other underwriting businesses and run-off operations.
2Includes policy acquisition costs, agents’ contingent commissions, and advertising costs attributable to our operating segments. A portion of our companywide advertising costs are also related to our service businesses.
3Primarily consists of employee compensation and benefit costs, and the increase in the allowance for credit loss exposure on our premiums receivable.
4Calculated as recurring investment income plus total net realized gains (losses) on securities, less investment expenses.
Our management uses underwriting margin and combined ratio as primary measures of underwriting profitability. The underwriting margin is the pretax underwriting profit (loss) expressed as a percentage of net premiums earned. Pretax underwriting profit (loss) is calculated as net premiums earned plus fees and other revenues, less: (i) losses and loss adjustment expenses; (ii) policy acquisition costs; and (iii) other underwriting expenses. Combined ratio is the complement of the underwriting margin. Fees and other revenues are netted against either loss adjustment expenses or underwriting expenses in the ratio calculations, based on the underlying activity that generated the revenue. Following are the underwriting margins and combined ratios for our underwriting operations for the respective periods:
Three Months Ended
March 31 ,2025
2024
Underwriting
Margin
Combined
Ratio
Underwriting
Margin
Combined
Ratio
Personal Lines
14.3 %
85.7
15.0 %
85.0
Commercial Lines 12.5
87.5
8.2
91.8
Total underwriting operations
14.0
86.0
13.9
86.1
-
DIVIDENDS
Following is a summary of our common and preferred share dividends that were declared and/or paid during the three months ended
March 31, 2025 and 2024:(millions – except per share amounts) Amount
Declared
Payable
Per Share
Accrued/Paid1
Common – Annual-Variable Dividends:
December 2024 January 2025 $ 4.50 $ 2,637 December 2023 Common – Quarterly Dividends:
January 2024 0.75
439
March 2025 April 2025 0.10
59
December 2024 January 2025 0.10
58
March 2024 April 2024 0.10
59
December 2023 Preferred Dividends:
January 2024 0.10
59
January 20242
February 2024 15.688377
8
1The accrual is based on an estimate of shares outstanding as of the record date and recorded as a component of accounts payable, accrued expenses, and other liabilities on our consolidated balance sheets until paid.
2In
February 2024 , we redeemed all of our outstanding Serial Preferred Shares, Series B. -
OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME (LOSS)
The components of other comprehensive income (loss), including reclassification adjustments by income statement line item, were as follows:
Components of Changes in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (after tax)
Total net
(millions)
Pretax total accumulated
other comprehensive income (loss)
Total tax (provision)
benefit
After tax total accumulated
other comprehensive income (loss)
unrealized
gains (losses)
on securities
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions
Foreign currency translation adjustment
Balance at December 31, 2024 $ (1,809) $ 386 $ (1,423) $ (1,408) $ (14) $ (1)
Other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications: |
||||||
Investment securities |
1,108 |
(233) |
875 |
875 |
0 |
0 |
Total other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications |
1,108 |
(233) |
875 |
875 |
0 |
0 |
Less: Reclassification adjustment for amounts realized in net income by income statement line item: |
||||||
Net realized gains (losses) on securities |
(30) |
6 |
(24) |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
Total reclassification adjustment for amounts realized in net income |
(30) |
6 |
(24) |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
Total other comprehensive income (loss) |
1,138 |
(239) |
899 |
899 |
0 |
0 |
Balance at |
|
147 |
|
(509) $ |
(14) $ |
(1) |
Components of Changes in Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (after tax)
(millions)
Pretax total accumulated
other comprehensive income (loss)
Total tax (provision)
benefit
After tax total accumulated
other comprehensive income (loss)
Total net unrealized
gains (losses) on securities
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions
Foreign currency translation adjustment
Balance at December 31, 2023 $ (2,053) $ 437 $ (1,616) $ (1,601) $ (14) $ (1)
Other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications: |
||||||
Investment securities |
(414) |
87 |
(327) |
(327) |
0 |
0 |
Total other comprehensive income (loss) before reclassifications |
(414) |
87 |
(327) |
(327) |
0 |
0 |
Less: Reclassification adjustment for amounts realized in net income by income statement line item: |
||||||
Net realized gains (losses) on securities |
(151) |
32 |
(119) |
(119) |
0 |
0 |
Total reclassification adjustment for amounts realized in net income |
(151) |
32 |
(119) |
(119) |
0 |
0 |
Total other comprehensive income (loss) |
(263) |
55 |
(208) |
(208) |
0 |
0 |
Balance at |
|
492 |
|
(1,809) $ |
(14) $ |
(1) |
In an effort to manage interest rate risk, we entered into forecasted transactions on certain of Progressive’s debt issuances. During the next 12 months, we expect to reclassify

Alice J. Roden started working for Trending Insurance News at the end of 2021. Alice grew up in Salt Lake City, UT. A writer with a vast insurance industry background Alice has help with several of the biggest insurance companies. Before joining Trending Insurance News, Alice briefly worked as a freelance journalist for several radio stations. She covers home, renters and other property insurance stories.