These US cities face the greatest severe weather threats, data shows

AUSTIN, Texas – More than one in four U.S. homes—representing $12.7 trillion in real estate value—now face severe or extreme climate risks, according to a Realtor.com report that warns flood, hurricane wind, and wildfire threats are reshaping the housing landscape nationwide.

Methodology:

Realtor.com analyzed home insurance costs using data from Insurify, a digital insurance comparison platform. The study calculated median annual premiums for standard HO-3 homeowners policies—based on single-family homes, good credit, and no recent claims—while factoring in deductibles for hail and hurricane damage.

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To improve accuracy, county-level rate data from Insurify were adjusted using property-level modifiers from Realtor.com® listings and matched with the platform’s Automated Valuation Model estimates. These values were used to determine each metro area’s median insurance premium-to-market-value ratio.

Climate risk levels were drawn from First Street’s Fire, Flood, and Wind Factor scores, with “severe” or “extreme” designations defined as scores of seven or higher. Urban Honolulu, Hawaii, was excluded from the rankings due to incomplete data.

What they’re saying:

“Climate risks are no longer a distant threat for U.S. housing—they are a present reality that put a large chunk of U.S. real estate value at risk,” Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com., said in an online news release. “In many markets, the gap between perceived risk and actual risk is sizable, particularly for flooding. This has significant consequences for homeowners, buyers, and insurers, and it underscores the need for readily available data to help households make informed decisions.”

Flood risk: The hidden threat to US housing

Dig deeper:

Millions of homes face severe flooding danger not captured by FEMA maps, exposing trillions in property value.

Flood risk remains one of the most underestimated hazards in the U.S. housing market. Nearly 6 million homes—valued at $3.4 trillion—are projected to face severe or extreme flooding over the next 30 years, according to First Street’s Flood Factor data featured on Realtor.com®. That’s about 2 million more homes than are currently identified in FEMA’s Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs), which often fail to account for heavy rainfall or the growing impacts of climate change.

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Among the nation’s 100 largest metros, New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco show the biggest gaps between FEMA’s flood zones and actual risk—totaling $95.3 billion, $65.6 billion, and $54.9 billion in unrecognized exposure, respectively. By market share, New Orleans leads with 66% of its housing stock facing severe or extreme flood risk not flagged by FEMA, followed by Palm Bay, Florida (15%), and Chattanooga, Tennessee (11%).

Overall, coastal metros dominate the list of areas with the highest concentration of home value exposed to severe flood risk—revealing how outdated maps and intensifying weather leave both homeowners and insurers vulnerable.

Hurricane wind risk

Dig deeper:

Every home in several Gulf and Atlantic metros faces extreme wind exposure, with insurance costs climbing alongside climate threats.

In 2025, roughly 18.3% of all U.S. homes—representing nearly $8 trillion in property value—are projected to face severe or extreme hurricane wind risk, according to First Street’s Wind Factor data on Realtor.com®. In fourteen major metros across Louisiana, Florida, South Carolina, and Texas—including Miami, Houston, Tampa, and New Orleans—every single home is exposed to this level of danger.

These wind risks often overlap with flooding, leaving homeowners in coastal regions vulnerable to compounding disasters. The financial fallout can be staggering: in some states, homeowners with a $400,000 policy must pay as much as $20,000 in hurricane damage before insurance coverage begins—further straining affordability in already high-risk markets.

Wildfire risk: Concentrated but intensifying

Dig deeper:

While wildfire risk remains geographically concentrated, its impact is growing rapidly. In 2025, about 5.6% of U.S. homes—worth a combined $3.2 trillion—are projected to face severe or extreme wildfire risk, according to First Street’s Fire Factor data on Realtor.com®. California alone accounts for nearly 40% of that exposure, or roughly $1.8 trillion in property value, with Los Angeles and Riverside among the most vulnerable metros.

The state’s insurance market is buckling under the pressure: California’s FAIR Plan, a last-resort insurance option, now covers $650 billion in exposure—an increase of 289% since 2021. Beyond California, wildfire danger is also intensifying in western metros like Colorado Springs, where more than three-quarters of home value is at risk, and Tucson, where 60% of homes face high fire danger.

Insurance costs: Rising and uneven

Dig deeper:

Insurance costs are compounding the financial pressures facing homeowners in climate-vulnerable areas. In Miami, the typical single-family homeowner with a standard HO-3 policy now pays annual premiums equal to 3.7% of the home’s market value—the highest ratio among the nation’s 100 largest metros.

New Orleans follows closely at 3.6%, with Cape Coral, Florida, at 2.2%. Florida cities dominate the list of the most expensive insurance markets, with Tampa, Palm Bay, and North Port all ranking in the top ten. These rising costs come amid deep structural gaps in coverage: flood insurance is often sold separately, hurricane deductibles far exceed standard policies, and in many regions, wildfire coverage is limited or prohibitively expensive.

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