The Department for Transport‘s call for evidence on the automated vehicles regulatory framework, which began in December 2025, closes tonight at midnight.

It seeks input on insurance requirements, operator licensing, and safety standards under the Automated Vehicles Act 2024.

Despite some analysts suggesting the rise of robotaxis and autonomous technology could fundamentally reshape motor insurance, the UK insurers remained unfazed by the prospect.

Admiral’s chief executive, Milena Mondini de Focatiis, told the Financial Times that the FTSE 100 group anticipated self-driving cars would comprise roughly four per cent of the market by 2035.

“We expect the motor insurance market to keep growing for the next 20 years or so, at least,” she said.

Jefferies analysts noted that Admiral’s projection for the autonomous vehicle market share appeared to be “lower than some assumed,” marking the first such forecast from a major insurer.

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The company’s relatively modest expectations contrast sharply with predictions from some financial institutions that have started factoring autonomous vehicle disruption into their valuations of car insurers.

Both Admiral and Aviva reported operating profit increases exceeding 10 per cent for the previous year, broadly meeting analyst expectations.

Aviva’s chief executive, Amanda Blanc, acknowledged the technological shift on the horizon but suggested it remained distant.

While she noted that “change is coming”, she said there would not be widespread uptake of autonomous vehicles before 2040.

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Ms Blanc argued that even when self-driving technology becomes commonplace, motorists would likely need to intervene in certain situations, such as navigating difficult road conditions.

This human element meant autonomous vehicles would “never” be entirely covered by commercial insurance policies alone, she maintained.

The Aviva boss‘s comments suggested insurers believe the transition to full autonomy will be gradual, with hybrid arrangements requiring both personal and commercial coverage persisting for years.

Her timeline places mass adoption roughly 15 years away, giving traditional motor insurers considerable runway to adapt their business models.

Several financial institutions predicted that car insurers will face mounting pressure as self-driving car manufacturers such as Alphabet’s Waymo and British startup Wayve increasingly rely on commercial liability policies rather than individual consumer cover.

“You’re essentially going to see a lot of retail [insurance] business move wholesale,” said Citi analyst James Shuck, who confirmed he had started incorporating autonomous vehicle effects into his assessments of retail motor insurance companies.

The Government’s consultation on developing the automated vehicles regulatory framework addresses how insurance will function for self-driving cars operating on UK roads.

The consultation also hopes to examine how insurance might demonstrate the financial standing of companies authorised to operate self-driving vehicles commercially.