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The future of health care premiums, open races in 2026


Close Up: The future of health care premiums, open races in 2026

Coming up on KCCI 8 news close up, as the government shutdown drags on, the debate about the extension of certain health insurance subsidies is in the spotlight. The potential cost if both sides don’t come to an agreement soon. And Iowa’s Doge task force releases its final recommendations on where to cut state spending, what they’re calling for, and the widespread effects if adopted by lawmakers. We also look at what’s at stake in commitment 2026, but still *** year to go before the midterm elections. We talked with both sides about how Iowa’s major races are shaping up. This is Iowa’s news leader. This is KCCI 8 News close up. Good morning. Thanks for joining us for KCCI 8 News close up. I’m chief political reporter Amanda Booker. We are now past the 3rd week of the federal government shutdown and millions of Americans who rely on health plans under the Affordable Care Act are concerned about *** potential increase if. Premiums in premiums if enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies aren’t extended. Democrats have been calling on Republicans to pass extensions before the government is reopened, while Republicans want to reopen the government before beginning health care talks. These extremists, they somehow have managed to find $40 billion. To bail out Argentina. And they can’t find *** dime to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits for working class Americans, everyday Americans, and middle class Americans. I would say to my Democratic colleagues, like, stop making people suffer. I mean, real people are suffering right now. Let’s stop this. I mean, I don’t get it. Stop that and we’ll work on the health care thing. Now I want to make clear this is just one piece of the fight uh that is keeping the government shut down, but it is *** key piece. The subsidies are set to expire at the end of the year, help lower the out of pocket costs of monthly premiums for those who buy insurance through the open marketplace. I sat down with Clay Thomas, who works in the Department of Management and Entrepreneurship at Iowa State University, to find out exactly what these enhanced ACA subsidies are and the domino effect if they expire. About 60% of the country gets their insurance through their jobs. That would be considered employer subsidized insurance. Other people get their insurance through Medicare and Medicaid, and some people buy their insurance through what’s called direct purchase, meaning they go by their insurance themselves and they don’t get it through their jobs because they’re self-employed or they’re *** farmer or something like that. So when we’re talking about ACA subsidies, we’re really talking about subsidies for those people who go and get direct purchase insurance. So what are the subsidies then? There are subsidies from federal government tax money to help people buy their insurance premiums. Premiums are the cost to have insurance, and that money goes into the insurance pool. How do these subsidies help people in Iowa pay for their health insurance? OK, so subsidies can be very helpful because as we know, health insurance is very expensive. Why is health care insurance very expensive? Because health care is very expensive, we have insurance because if we ever have to use healthcare, we’re not paying all of that money out of pocket. That’s why we have car insurance. If we get in *** car accident and our car is totaled, insurance helps us replace our car, we don’t have to do it all out of pocket. Same reason for health insurance. We have health insurance because getting health care is very expensive and insurance helps us pay for it. So why does this matter for the premium talk? Well, you have to pay your monthly costs to get into the insurance risk pool. And with the subsidies, the government helps you buy your health insurance premium. So when you’re buying insurance, you’re paying for some of it and the government is paying for some of it. The government is paying essentially on average about half the cost for these people who are receiving subsidies. So if these subsidies go away, those people’s premiums are gonna double. What type of people qualify for these subsidies? Is it everyone who is, you know, self-employed or *** farmer? Are there certain kind of income demographics or things of people that use these? It varies, so the variations are based on household size, income, age. The biggest effect factor is likely going to be for people who make 400% of the federal poverty income guidelines. So what that means is that. They are the ones who would face the biggest increase in their premium costs if these subsidies go away. I should note though that it’s not just those individuals or those families who will feel the cost. Premiums are likely going to go up for other people who are having health insurance. Here’s why because the people who are facing this increased cost might decide that they don’t want health insurance. They’re gonna risk it and they’re not gonna pay in health insurance, which means that their premium money is not going into the shared risk pool. And so there’s going to be less money in the risk pool, which means everyone who stays, who are likely the older people, people who have underlying conditions, people who really need health care, their premiums are gonna go up to make up for that lost money in the pool. And then the other people who are going to feel the effects are healthcare organizations, specifically hospitals with emergency rooms. So for people who rely on these subsidies, if they expire, how much more are they going to have to pay for their health insurance? So it depends on household income, age, things like that, but on average we’re expecting to see an increase in Iowa from $500 *** month, doubling to $1000 *** month. Wow. That’s *** pretty size. I, I mean, these, these are, it’s hard to imagine where people would find an extra $500 *** month to pay for their health insurance. If these do expire, if the government stopped paying for them, would that save taxpayer money, or would it cost more in the long run if more people lose health care coverage? Complicated question. We do know how much it would cost to keep these. Enhanced subsidies going and that would be between. 335 billion to 350 billion over 10 years. So, *** reasonable question then is, how is that more than we would pay if those go away? And, you know, in one respect, Yes, but in the long run, I, I would venture, I guess, to say it would cost as much money to. Deliver the healthcare, it would just come from different pockets instead of coming from the federal government tax dollars, it would come out of people’s pockets and out of hospitals’ pockets. So then maybe we start talking about hospitals needing financial support from the government and we end up paying hospitals to cover the cost of uninsured uninsured patients instead of paying for the premium subsidies up front. Now as the government shutdown drags into another week, the blame game in Washington is already spilling into next year’s campaigns, and that could have big implications here in Iowa where voters are gearing up for one of the most wide open election cycles here in decades. For the first time in nearly 60 years, Iowans will head into an election without an incumbent on the ballot for. Governor or US Senate and at least two congressional seats are wide open as well. Joining us now to break down what it all means our political strategists, Republican David Oman, Democrat Matt Paul, thanks for joining us. Well, we want to start talking about that government shutdown. On the one hand you saw there are these big concerns about, you know, health care. On the other hand. You know, November 1st, if this government shutdown drags on, people potentially, you know, won’t be able to access SNAP benefits. That’s *** huge concern, you know, Matt, we’ll start with you. How could you, how could this potentially impact the 2026 election cycle in voters’ minds? Well, we’ll see how long memories last into the midterm elections. It seems like. Topics of the day fueling and driving turnout becomes shorter and shorter every year, or maybe that’s me just getting older, but there’s no question if you, if you look last year where Democrats were about *** year ago when we talked, we’re coming out of *** disappointing election. Democrats faced *** strong uphill battle and you look now we have *** Democratic gubernatorial candidate who’s just completed *** 99 county tour with really strong crowds. Um, there’s an enormous opportunity for Democrats here if we can capitalize on it and put forward *** growth economy strategy and and meet people at their kitchen tables and engage on some of these issues like health care and taking care of the most vulnerable people. I think it’s important to remember, Amanda that Republicans control the White House and they control the Congress, so they are the ones I think who are going to bear *** lot of the responsibility about the shutdown and the impacts that we’re seeing, not to mention the devastating challenges we’re seeing out in the country with the farm economy. It it’s clear that both parties are are trying to obviously there are real people that are going to feel the impact of this so you know it’s hard to talk about all the messaging and the power and the game when all of this really impacts real people. However, both parties potentially have *** lot to lose. They’re trying to to message out of this that it’s the other side’s fault, you know. David, what do you make of that? It seems like the polling right now shows Americans are split. Some see this, uh, to your point, Matt, but this is the Republicans’ faults. But others see the Democrats are holding out, won’t pass *** clean, you know, CR, and people’s snap benefits are on the line. Well, I think *** lot of Americans say this is business as usual or government as usual, and they’re frustrated by it. There’s even conversation that this will have an impact in the two governors races in New Jersey and Virginia which are coming up in *** couple of weeks. Uh, usually what happens with these shutdowns, and they’re way too many, they’re plural they happens so frequently, you’ll either see some people with subject matter expertise in this case healthcare, that really works something out and have to sell it to leadership to unclog this, otherwise it could just go on and on and will be, it’ll be brinksmanship and that’s not good for 330 million Americans. We talk about Iowa right now. We, we are on the cusp of perhaps one of the most exciting political years and off year, not presidential year, no caucuses than we’ve seen in *** long time. It’s been since 1968 when Hughes went to the Senate and Bob Ray took an open governorship. We’ve never had those offices open at the same time. *** lot of people running, um, and one thought that we’ve talked *** little bit about is I think 6 months ago when Governor Reynolds said she was not running. It looked like that there would be Uh, ***, ***, ***, *** pretty easy Republican governor primary. Randy F Fister jumped in, looked like he might clear the field or get close, that didn’t happen. And it, it looked like the Senate race, uh, It would be one heck of *** contest with 55 people running. Now it’s flipped. Uh, the Republican governor primary is gonna be worth watching. I want to ask and the Senate primary on the Democratic side is, is almost put away. Yeah, tell me *** little bit more about that because looking at the governor’s race, looking at the, the Republican side, I think that *** lot of people have some questions. You have, you know, Eddie. Andrews and Adam Stein and Brad Sherman, who are all in the race official officially but may have, they have less name recognition than someone like Randy Feinstra who has this exploratory committee, hasn’t gotten in yet. You know, if Fetra jumps in, it sounds like your impression is he may not just clear the field. What makes you feel like this could be competitive? Well, because so many other people are running already and you know my council always been in these races if you’re going to run for governor. Because it’s *** special office, people care about who their governor is and maybe the first lady in the family want to get to know if you’re going to run for governor, run for governor and, and get out there and, and Randy’s been tied up in DC, um, he’s got, he’s, you know, there’s been 6 months that have happened since the governor pulled back, said she wasn’t running. We’re 6 months in, we’re 7 months from the primary. So it’s time for this primary to really get going uh like I have *** fondness for the office of the governor. I think it’s *** very important office uh that *** governor in any state can make decisions and lead *** state, not just *** legislature. Ed Campbell, one of beloved former now late. Ed Campbell was Democratic chair. He said 40 years ago he would trade both Senate seats, all the House races, and the legislature if his party could have the governorship. Matt, I want to ask you about that. Rob Sand, Democrats seem to be unifying behind him, as you mentioned at these town hall events that he’s hosting across the across the state right now, there’s *** lot of enthusiasm, it seems like at them. However, look at. The numbers you see Republicans have *** significant voter registration, you know, advantage. What strategy is San’s campaign working on to try to turn that enthusiasm into something that could create *** competitive race? Well, I think I’m not involved in the day to day of the campaign. You’d have to ask them, but I, I can say I’m from, from what I’m seeing, I’m really impressed by the campaign. That Rob is running, I think the fact that he’s getting out there and he’s not just going to Blue County, he’s just not going to poke and and Johnson and Lynn and other places he’s going, he’s been to every county, which I think you need to do. David and I were lucky to both work for governors. He for, for Governor Ray, um, I was, I was privileged to work for Tom Vilsack when he was governor all 8 years. Uh, David’s right. It means something to be governor and you represent an entire state, and I think one thing Rob has done extraordinarily well is reach out to independents, reach out to Republicans and say, let’s sit down, let’s have *** conversation, and he opens up, opens up his forums and has *** conversation with Iowans, *** decent conversation, of course. There are folks who disagree with him and might not agree with everything that he says, but he’s having that conversation and he’s taking his message out and reaching out directly to people, which I think matters *** great deal. He will get better from that primaries make candidates better. I strongly believe that, um, and so I think you will see both in the Senate and in the gubernatorial race, um, some pressure testing of these candidates and that. *** good thing both from *** political perspective and from *** governing perspective in my view. And there’s still *** lot to talk about about those Iowa’s open Senate race. We’ll talk about that more when we come back. Our conversation continues on commitment 2026. We also talk about the final report from Iowa Dos which shows areas of what areas our state’s economy could potentially improve. Welcome back to Close Up. The 2026 election is still. More than *** year away, but we’ve got some competitive races already shaping up. One that is drawing *** lot of attention wide open race for Iowa’s US Senate seat. We’re joined today by Democrat Matt Paul, Republican David Oman. Thanks for being here. Uh, one big change since we’ve last talked, uh, there’s one last person in the Democratic primary for Iowa’s US Senate seat, Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines school board, you know, uh, dropped out of the race, still dealing with. You know, some of the fallout of the arrest of, uh, you know, the former superintendent Ian Roberts. Matt, one last person, you know, in the primary, how does this kind of reshape the race on the Democratic side? Well, I think essentially it’s *** two person race now, I think with uh Zach Walsh and Josh Turk. I, I think there’s no question that Josh since his launch, has run *** spectacular race and is generating *** lot of interest. But if you look at those financial reports that just came out. Um, I think Zach Wallace had *** strong report. He’s got *** good cash on hand, so this, this race begins now really and is sort of re-centered and refocused, and we’ll see how the dynamics change with what is essentially now *** two person race in my view. David Ashley Henson, when she jumped in after, you know, Joni Ernst decided that she wouldn’t be running it, there’s just so much change in this, in this election. But you know, did her entrance, you know, essentially kind of clear the field ish for Republicans? I know there are, there, you know, uh, there are other people in the race as well, but what’s your take on this? Well, there’s one I saw him just in the last week, *** principled guy, but he’s got $4000 in the bank, so that’s not *** real race. Look, Ashley Hinson. And, and probably uh Turic, uh, will be one of the top 3 or 4 US Senate races in the country. Ashley is *** tremendous. Senate candidate because she’s *** wonderful person, she’s been *** good house member she she grew up in this market she was on television over in eastern Iowa she’s done *** dutiful job in the US House. She’s likable she’s smart, she listens, she engages and uh we can look forward to uh *** lot of discussion about that and probably you can have *** lot of ads on your. it’s gonna be busy for sure. Well, there’s so much more about 2026 that I would love to talk to both of you about, but unfortunately we’re out of time. Thank you both so much for joining us this morning. You’re welcome. Well, still to come on close up the recommendations from Iowa’s Doge task force last week to try and cut what it sees as unnecessary spending. Last week, the Iowa Doge task force released its final recommendations on reshaping how our state government should work. Governor Kim Reynolds formed this task force back in February. It includes people with experience in public and higher education along with business leaders in our state. There are more than *** 100 page report touches on topics from health. Care to education. There is so much here we could talk about it all show long. KCCI investigative reporter Suzanne Bay has been pouring through this entire report. Suzanne, we don’t have *** whole lot of time, but in *** minute or less, if you could tell our viewers what they should know, you know, out of the hun you know, more than 100 pages of this report, what is it pitching? Uh, efficiency is number one and also it’s looking at ways that government can work better for citizens. So there’s *** ton, right, like 136 pages, so there’s *** lot in there, uh, but one of the key things that I would point out that hasn’t been highlighted just yet is looking at implementing *** single user, uh, log on for state. Forms state things that you might pay, uh, how that all works out, don’t know, but that could be *** very easy thing for citizens to use and it’s also intended to be mobile friendly. So instead of having to fill something out and mail it back in, you could handle all government types of functions, driver’s license kinds of things, um, state. Government, uh, uh, fees, whatever that looks like through your phone. So I think that’s an important one to highlight, um, that we haven’t heard *** lot about just yet. I know one thing we’ve talked *** lot about has been, uh, there’s *** plan to do some merit-based pay for teachers. Our viewers can learn more about that on KCCI.com. So again we could spend *** lot of time talking about that, but another. Thing that I think *** lot of people who use Zippers, you know, get state pension plans, have *** lot of questions about there’s reform for that pitched in this plan, how would that work? Uh, so I think one of the main things to emphasize is IPERS as it is right now is not changing for current state employees and it’s not going away that that’s I’ve seen that out there that’s misinformation. That is not the intention. What’s in the Doge report is to look at what kind of benefits are being offered, and uh there’s this understanding that if you’re *** state employee that you might not have the best pay. So traditionally benefits like retirement benefits like IPERS and health insurance have been covered more so this is saying let’s align it more. With how businesses do this, um, but also look at ways to incentivize really great performers so state employees coming in if the legislature were to decide to take this on and implement something new would maybe not have quite the same IPERS benefits that are currently there, which, which are good. I mean that’s why *** lot of people stay in state employment. But I have heard some concerns already from some other people I’ve interviewed just even this past week. They’re concerned about that. How would they recruit people if the benefits aren’t the same? Yeah, there’s *** lot of different pieces in this report. I think again it’s important to clarify for our viewers that none of these. Will automatically just happen. Lawmakers still have to approve them, so we’ll be covering this all next legislative session. Suzanne, thanks for being here. Happy to be here. Well, so the cow on close up, the Brazilian scientists celebrated at the World Food Prize ceremony and the farming practices she’s dedicated her life to improving. Welcome back. The 2025 World Food Prize was named in Des Moines last week. *** Brazilian soil scientist was celebrated for her breakthrough in sustainable farming. And I promise I will continue to fight in hunger and to promote agricultural sustainability until the last day of my life. As part of the award, she received $500,000. The vice president of the Republic of Ghana also attended the event, giving *** keynote speech. Next year, the World Food Prize celebrates its 40th anniversary. Well, thanks for joining us this morning. We’ll see you back here next Sunday. Have *** great day.

Close Up: The future of health care premiums, open races in 2026

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Updated: 12:01 PM CDT Oct 26, 2025

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On this week’s Close Up, the debate about the extension of health insurance subsidies is in the spotlight due to the government shutdown. How that could affect the cost of health care premiums if both sides don’t come to an agreement soon.Our analysts look ahead to Iowa’s 2026 midterm election’s wide open races for governor and senate.Plus, the final DOGE report is out, and there are some facts to clear up when it comes to IPERS recommendations. KCCI’s chief investigative reporter explains. Watch the full episode in the video player above. » Subscribe to KCCI’s YouTube page» Download the free KCCI app to get updates on the go: Apple | Google Play

On this week’s Close Up, the debate about the extension of health insurance subsidies is in the spotlight due to the government shutdown. How that could affect the cost of health care premiums if both sides don’t come to an agreement soon.

Our analysts look ahead to Iowa’s 2026 midterm election’s wide open races for governor and senate.

Plus, the final DOGE report is out, and there are some facts to clear up when it comes to IPERS recommendations. KCCI’s chief investigative reporter explains.

Watch the full episode in the video player above.

» Subscribe to KCCI’s YouTube page

» Download the free KCCI app to get updates on the go: Apple | Google Play



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